CO129-560-15 Traffic of arms to China 18-2-1937 - 15-11-1937 — Page 162

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ground maintenance services.

It is very doubtful whether present output of some 5,000-

6,000 aircraft per year, which has to replace worn-out air- craft, re-equip units holding obsolete types of aircraft, and supply spanish Government forces, can be speeded up. support of China on scale mentioned would demand reduction of

first-line strength of U.S.S.R.

Thus

Air Attaché emphasizes that these are personal views. Considered and authoritative interpretation should be obtained

from Air Ministry.

Soviet Government's capacity to supply in considerable

quantities seems therefore (subject to War Office and Air Ministry agreement) established on condition that Soviet Government are prepared to reduce their own military resources and reserves. Their willingness to supply is linked with their view of political situation and although I have no doubt

that they would welcome any set-back or military losses that might be inflicted on Japan I doubt very much whether they would run risk involved in trenching on their own resources,

to the extent which would be necessary in order to influence decisively course of Sino-Japanese conflict, in view of present state of their relations with Germany and Japan, especially latter, and relationship between those two Powers. However, actual decision rests in hands of a small group of men and there is no means of knowing whether they have decided or will decide to take this dangerous risk.

I do not fully understand paragraph 2 but reply seems to lie almost entirely within province of His Majesty's Representative at Berlin. I have no doubt that soviet Government (if they were consulted) would agree to supply and despatch of aircraft by Germany for use against Japan.

There